The Ebola virus which is currently rampaging West Africa seems
like it appeared out of the blues, but for months has been tearing apart
Guinea and with frightening speed moved into Sierra Leone and Liberia.
These Mano River Union countries have become the epic centres for the
disease to infiltrate Africa and the world.
Let’s be clear about this; Ebola is no joke, it is a deeply
unpleasant and dangerous disease, with a fatality rate of up to 90%. For
every 10 people who get it, only 1 survives, qualifying it among
the most lethal diseases known to man. In its virulent form, it is a
grave threat to national security and regional stability.
More people have died from Ebola this year than at any point in the
history of the disease. There have now been at least 1,711 cases of
Ebola this year and more than 932 people have died in Sierra Leone,
Guinea, Liberia and Nigeria. Nigeria has recorded its first casualty.
Third world countries often view threats to national security from a
very narrow prism. This jaundiced view is an offshoot from the cold war
paradigm which was premised on the preservation of the nation state –
its territorial integrity, political institutions, and national
sovereignty from physical threats. But while the west has broadened its
view of this concept, their poorer friends are yet to grasp it which
almost always leaves them flat footed. But the most unfortunate part of
their failure is to anticipate or think through problems and make
adequate plans to prevent or contain it in the eventuality that it
occurs.
The Nigerian experience of dealing with unconventional warfare as the
insurgency of first, the Niger Delta militants and now Boko Haram which
has become virulent is a case in point. Almost four years into their
war against Nigerians, the country cannot boast of a counter insurgency
force. The paranaphelia for such operations is sorely lacking.
In the 21st Century the issues that will give presidents,
heads of government and the international community sleepless nights
will not come from traditional threats but from food and water
scarcity, disease pandemics and climate change. Nations have lost the
appetite for direct confrontation through traditional warfare. The rise
of violent non state actors is shifting the security paradigm and
challenging states to reinvest in their security infrastructures through
reorientation and re- training of their man power.
Violent non state actors like Boko Haram, HAMAS, Al Qeada and ISIL
have shown that they can significantly engage in asymmetrical warfare
against vastly superior forces and create shock and psychological
damage.
While the world is fixated on dealing with these challenges,
infectious diseases are stealthily popping out in different parts of the
world threatening the socio economic and even political balance of
regions. It is not surprising that many of these diseases have emerged
in the poor regions of the world it is also not surprising that these
countries have not been able to connect the dots to the linkage with
economic security which is in itself a major component of national
security.
Ebola was discovered in then Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo)
almost 40 year ago still poses a clear and present danger to every
nation’s security.
Nigerians are now apprehensive following the death of the nurse who treated Sawyer.
Here’s the really scary bit: Patrick Sawyer isn’t the only one to
have slipped into Nigeria from the affected countries. There will be
movements all across West Africa into Nigeria and it’s probably only a
matter of time before Ebola truly manifests given the amount of travel,
mixing and mingling that we do.
It’s not a matter of if Ebola will come our way, it’s a matter of how
well prepared are we in handling it. Lets break it down a bit; an
outbreak will lead to mass hysteria and will threaten the nation’s
security; a serious outbreak will simply overwhelm the government and
spur mass migration of infected victims across the country, which will
put huge strains on our near nonexistent public health system, a
depletion in productivity in the nation’s workforce which could snow
ball into political instability, class strife, and economic volatility.
The Nigerian nurse who died after coming in contact with Sawyer,
shows how easily the disease can enter the country. The amount of people
who were exposed to Sawyer means that the danger couldn’t be clearer.
But the question to be asked is if this country is ready to deal with
this danger? While the Lagos state government must be commended for its
professional conduct in handling it, a lot more needs to be done in
other parts of the country.
There has yet to be any form of urgency in sensitization campaigns on
the disease from the Federal Ministry of Health in conjunction with the
Ministry of Information.
The Federal and Lagos State Governments are singing from different hymn books in terms of actionable plans to prepare Nigerians.
A lot of Nigerians don’t know what Ebola is. Apart from Lagos State
what are other states doing to step up a health surveillance and
response network, create awareness and build a knowledge bridge on this
issue. Are there any Public Service Annoucements across the country? Can
anyone with parents and folks residing in rural Nigeria swear that
these folks know what Ebola is? We should not wait till people begin to
die before we act.The ripple effect will be devastating.
In actual fact the National Security Adviser should be at the fore in
conjunction with stakeholders, frame a strategic national imperative on
dealing with the dangers such diseases pose to the health of the
country.
Vigilance is the watch word in these testy times and as we have seen
with Ebola, diseases can spread rapidly, quickly reaching pandemic
levels. It can act as a trigger for social, political, and economic
instability.
Prevention is not as important as preparation in dealing with the
spread of these diseases. At every level of this country- Federal, State
and Local Governments, concerted effort must begin. It also means we
must change our ways as a nation or else we stand the huge risk of
witnessing a decimation of our population. It is better imagined than
experienced.
The BIG question remains if we are ready as a nation; do we have the
capacity to handle a pandemic with its attendant implication for our
national security?
I stay engaged @oheguridu.
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